In 2025, Dubai saw over AED 431 billion in real estate transactions in the first half alone, with a significant portion tied to commercial assets. Yet behind those record numbers lies a more pressing question for global investors: when that commercial lease ends, does the law on paper hold up in practice? The real stress test for UAE real estate leasing in Dubai is not rent growth, but rather whether the rule of law prevails when tenancy turns to termination.
The Weakest Link: When Leases End, Outcomes Vary
Dubai’s tenancy law already outlines the conditions under which a landlord may recover possession after a lease expires. The rule requires a 12-month eviction notice delivered through a notary or registered mail. However, in practice, timelines, interpretations, and even the survival of notices after ownership transfers can vary. This inconsistency directly affects how investors assess and underwrite risk.
Recent rulings suggest that eviction notices may now be attached to the property rather than the landlord, meaning buyers can assume possession without reissuing a new notice. For landlords and investors, that is reassuring. For tenants, it tightens the timeline for recourse.
Still, around 10 to 15 percent of post-expiry cases fall into delay or negotiation over old rent terms. Disputes often arise from ambiguous clauses, side agreements, or differing interpretations of “personal use.” These slowdowns reveal the thin margin between a transparent system and one that tests investor confidence.
Why Predictability Has Become the Key Risk Variable
In commercial property finance, investors now evaluate three things above all else:
- Time to obtain possession after notice
- Certainty of outcome that process, not personality, decides results
- Consistency across similar cases
When these variables are stable, risk compresses. When they vary, financing costs rise, due diligence becomes more extensive, and valuations are affected. Even strong yields cannot offset the drag of legal uncertainty.
Institutional investors, including private equity groups, sovereign funds, and asset managers, are shifting their focus from returns to reliability. The moment one post-expiry case lingers longer than expected, it sends ripples through lending models and exit valuations.
What Dubai Must Do to Cement Investor Trust
Dubai’s laws are not the problem; the execution is. To solidify its status as a global investment hub, the system needs to bridge the gap between regulation and enforcement.
1. Publish clear service standards for post-expiry cases
Publicly available timelines for notice-to-possession outcomes would help investors price certainty rather than guess at it.
2. Keep mediation aligned with statute
Conciliation must respect the law’s boundaries. Side deals or informal rent extensions should not override valid expiry notices.
3. Standardize lease disclosure during property sales
Buyers should have full visibility into all lease terms, extensions, and eviction notices before closing a deal. Transparency ensures pricing reflects reality.
4. Release quarterly reports on case durations
Aggregate reporting on dispute timelines and resolutions would build confidence in the system’s consistency.
5. Codify the transferability of eviction notices
Formal guidance confirming that eviction notices remain valid after ownership changes would eliminate confusion and costly delays.
If outcomes consistently match what the law prescribes, Dubai will reinforce its competitive edge. Predictability lowers perceived risk, which reduces financing costs and boosts asset values.
What to Watch in the Coming Months
- New circulars clarifying procedures for commercial lease expiry
- Revised timelines and fast-track systems for high-value property disputes
- Evolving lender term sheets reflecting growing confidence in possession timelines
- Valuation models shifting from “risk-adjusted rent” to “secure possession premium”
If these developments materialize, it will mean the system has shifted from written law to practiced law, an evolution that global capital notices.
The Bottom Line: The Lease End Is the Real Proof Point
Dubai’s reputation has long rested on its ability to deliver clarity and speed. But the next frontier is the final mile of every lease, the moment the rules must hold firm. A commercial market with rapid growth but uncertain enforcement risks losing investor trust. A market that delivers lawful, predictable outcomes at lease expiry secures long-term capital and confidence.
The UAE real estate leasing sector already has a framework in place. What it needs now is a consistent, transparent, and timely application. When Dubai can guarantee this, it will not only sustain investor interest but also define the regional standard for the rule of law in real estate.